AWESOME TUESDAY

Well, even my greatest expectations were bested by the Dems last night, winning both the House by a wider margin than I predicted (so far with 229 seats, 10 undecided) and also winning the Senate. Didn't see Missouri coming, but it "showed me." Washington's I-920 failed, as did I-933. Cantwell was resoundingly re-elected. It looks as though Washington voters did pass I-937 (requiring utilities in the state to get a certain percentage of their energy from renewable resources by a certain point in the future). The fate of Darcy Burner/Dave Reichert is still unknown in a razor thin finish, with Reichert leading. I don't believe I've ever felt as in-sync with the electorate as I did this election.

Election Day Eve and Election Day Flooding in WA-08 and beyond

Major flooding is going on throughout Washington's 8th Congressional District (and throughout Western Washington) and it promises to continue into Election Day, as you can see here. A state of emergency has been declared by Governor Gregoire. Many Washingtonians have already voted by mail, so the effect on turnout may be less than had this happened in some other states. King 5 is providing information on what to do if your polling place has been flooded.

Note

By the way, that would mean a gain of 26 D seats in the House and 5 in the Senate (not including Lieberman as a loss.)

Predictions

Well, just for fun, I'll offer an election prediction I made on Stone's Throw.

House: will be 229 D; 206 R; D's with a 23 seat advantage.
Senate: D's will win Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Rhode Island; hold Maryland, New Jersey and Washington, but won't take Missouri or Tennessee, leaving the Senate at 48 D's; 1 independent socialist (I love Vermont); 1 Lieberman; and 50 R's.

Now, I hope that the D's can also pull off Missouri, and somehow make a comeback in Tennessee...and an upset in Arizona would be nice too. All is within the realm of possibility, but not likely. That would leave the D's with 50 seats; 1 independent socialist; 1 Lieberman and 48 R's (what I call a Lieberman-proof majority).

The networks are talking about Republican gains in the national general polls. I have always thought these polls serve as an indicator as to national sentiment maybe, but are not very useful at predicting Congressional races.

I think the best result the Republicans can expect is maintaining an 8-seat (down from their 10-seat) majority in the Senate. This result is probaby just as likely as my dream Lieberman-proof majority scenario for the D's.

Capote Review

Well, most of my spare time thoughts have been devoted to the upcoming elections. I haven't been writing much here, largely because I've been commenting instead on my Dad's blog.

Watched the movie "Capote" last night, which I didn't care for much. What was the point of the movie? There was no mystery. I didn't develop a connection with the characters (either the killers or Capote). No great story or plot. The only thing I took away from it is that Capote was a slightly egomanical guy with an annoying voice, which the film went to great lenghts to convey. It was as if the filmmaker was somehow obsessed with this annoying voice of his, and made a movie to say, "look how annoying this guy is...isn't that cool?"

The film made vain attempts at building character but never had the time to leave you with anything but one-liners without any back up, such as the one by Capote about people making assumptions about him because of the way he talked, etc, and that those assumptions were wrong. Really? Well, the movie never bothered to show us why they were wrong, or right for that matter. It hinted at a romance between Capote and another New York writer, but seemed afraid to "go there," so I didn't end up caring one way or the other about that relationship. The previews made me think this movie was a lot substantive than it was....it was as if the entire movie was a preview...giving you one-liners to pretend that the film was going to have some good character development and plot, but it remained barren throughout...a facade of the biography this man probably (though I'm left doubting) deserved.