ObamaMath

Well, the contest drags on...here's my look at the delegate math going forward.

2025 to win

Current Standings (per Real Clear Politics) (elected and superdelegates)
Obama: 1728 (needs 297)
Clinton: 1596 (needs 429)

Superdelegates remaining: 296 undecided; 496 decided (792 total)
Elected delegates: 3318 decided

Contests for Elected Delegates Remaining (408 delegates total):

Guam: 4
Indiana: 72 (Obama +3 in polls)
NC: 115 (Obama +15.5 in polls)
WV: 28
Oregon: 52
KY: 51
PR: 55
MT: 16
SD: 15

Prediction for contests (supposing no resolution beforehand):

Guam: Obama 3; Clinton 1
NC: Obama 68; Clinton 47
IN: Obama 37; Clinton 35
WV: Obama 9; Clinton 19
OR: Obama 31; Clinton 21
KY: Obama 18; Clinton 33
PR: Obama 16; Clinton 39
MT: Obama 10; Clinton 6
SD: Obama 9; Clinton 6

Remaining Elections Total Prediction: Obama 201; Clinton 207
Total delegates after all elections (supposing no changes in superdelegate decisions or indecision): Obama 1929; Clinton 1803
Supposing 0 supers decide in the interim (unlikely) Obama will be 96 superdelegates away from victory (32% of remaining) and Clinton will be 222 supers away (75% of remaining). If in the interim 32% of the remaining supers go for Obama, he can lock up the nomination by the end of all elections in June. But, thankfully, it might be over sooner...

Looking down the road...after NC and IN, but before other contests:

All the following is after IN and NC and Guam (supposing current poll numbers hold)

Delegate Totals after IN, NC and Guam (supposing poll numbers hold)
Obama: 1835 (needs 190)
Clinton: 1679 (needs 346)

Path to Victory for Clinton

This is the rougher road for sure...

Clinton's worst case, but still possible to win scenario: 50 elected delegates (23%) plus all remaining superdelegates.

In other words if she does worse than 23% in the remaining elections, it will be impossible for her to win without superdelegates defecting from Obama (which is extremely unlikely if she does that badly.) However, it is extremely unlikely for her to do this poorly in the remaining post-IN; NC elections with many contests that probably favor her demographically (WV; KY; PR).

After NC, IN and Guam, there are 217 elected up for grabs.

Other Clinton scenarios:

Clinton gets 50% of remaining superdelegates (148) plus 198 remaining elected delegates (91%); OR 80% of remaining superdelegates (236) plus 51% of remaining elected delegates. In other words she needs a substantial majority of remaining superdelegates to choose her to have a chance.

Path to Victory for Obama

This really illustrates how much easier it is for Obama to win this nomination...

Obama can win with 64% of remaining superdelegates and 0 additional elected delegates OR
50% of remaining elected delegates (109) plus 81 remaining superdelegates or (27% of remaining superdelegates)

If he wins half the remaining delegates to be elected (a reasonable scenario as laid out above), he only needs to convince 27% of the remaining supers to vote for him.

All of this will likely change as more and more superdelegates decide; and I guess that they will go to Obama by a 2:1 margin. If he can hold current poll numbers in IN and NC and persuade 64% of the remaining undecided supers to decide then and there in his favor after those elections (likely only if he wins both states), he will be able to reach the magic 2025 number and effectively end the primary.