As I predicted, and as the pundits continually ignore, it appears that Obama may actually have benefited a few points since the ABC debate and since Clinton has started focussing on the non-issues of the campaign.
Another ignored poll is the one showing Obama pulling way ahead of Clinton among Democrats nationally. Instead, ABC News (who seems to be making clear what they want to happen in Penn. Tuesday) last night cited an unnamed "new" poll showing Clinton gaining by a single percentage point nationally and saying that Sen. Clinton was using the poll as evidence of her electability. Unfortunately, no more was said about the poll (who conducted it, was it among Democrats or the general electorate?).
My prediction is a 4-9 point victory for Clinton on Tuesday. If she loses Pennsylvania I think she would likely withdraw from the race. But if she wins even by the smallest margins, she will simply try to reset expectations and probably fight until the last votes are cast, and beyond. She has lost a nearly 20 point lead in the polls from a few weeks ago and in this system of proportionate delegate allocation, that is significant, even if she still gets the check mark next to her name.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
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1 comments:
You missed it by 0.4%. Think she finished 9.4% ahead and, of course, is claiming a double-diget win. Think he would be wise to just ignore her for rest of the process, unless there is a serious move to change the process (e.g. count Michigan, go by electoral college count, etc.).
I am willing to see it through until the last scheduled primary - not wanting to deny Puerto Rico its fifteen minutes of fame. But, if he's still the clear leader July 1st, she should graciously bow to the inevitable. If she tries to take it to a convention floor fight...I'll be very upset.
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