Saturday, May 03, 2008

Clinton Momentum --> Deadlocked Convention --> Pres. McCain--> God help us all

Well cnn.com has a great delegate tracking tool here.

What the counter reveals are two things. 1. It is very unlikely for Hillary to overtake Obama in delegates and she will llikely have to convince a huge number of remaining supers to vote for her or take the fight to the convention; which leads to the second point. 2. It is very possible that even with all superdelegates deciding and all contests allocated (minus FL and MI) neither candidate may have sufficient totals. If Clinton's momentum continues, this result becomes more likely. And with Democrats largely deadlocked and some Republicans crossing over (some for strategic reasons), this appears to be the track we're heading down.

This is how difficult it is to unseat a powerhouse within the Democratic Party. Obama needs to do something to fight back in my view. If Clinton's momentum continues, and she wins all remaining contests (NC tie or slight win; same with OR; IN high single digit win and gains about sixty percent of remaining superdelegates, we're going to Denver with neither candidate able to cross the 2025 threshhold. Proof once and for all that Democratic voters are not strategic voters. If they were, Clinton would have lost Texas and Ohio and the race would have been over long ago.

A deadlocked convention is of course the mainstream media's dream come true in the otherwise slow ratings season in August and it appears they are about to have their self-fulfilling prophesy come true. 80% of media coverage on Obama has been negative since Pennsylvania, even if it has surrounded a single subject. CNN just this weekend showed us that it refuses to let the Rev. Wright issue die, making him once again the headline political story.

Yes, this may be the only way Republicans could conceivably win in November and it appears to be happening, however slim the odds were when the primary season started. Clintonites will blame it on the upstart Obama who dared run before his annointed time and dared overtake Queen Hillary in the delegate count. Obamanites (myself included) blame Clinton's dynastic vanity, who could care less if they send the Democrats and the future of our country into oblivion if it means they have a slim chance at continuing the dynasty.

Democratic voters need to wisen up to the delegate math and where this is taking us. It is time to vote strategically as a Republican would and it is too late to coalesce around Clinton without chaos. If not, we have no one but ourselves to blame for sixteen straight years of Republican rule that could do irreversible damage to our country. I personally don't want to raise my daughter in a third-world America.

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